California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a Monday press conference the state is considering a new stay-at-home order in purple-tier counties if cases continue to surge.
The state is experiencing the highest rate of increase in COVID-19 cases since the start of the pandemic, and in one to two weeks, new cases resulting from Thanksgiving gatherings are expected to pop up and accelerate the surge.
"If these trends continue, we're going to have to take much more dramatic, arguably drastic action," Newsom said.
With 51 of the state's 58 counties in the most restrictive tier, 99% of the population could fall under a lockdown. The governor didn't outline the details of the potential new order, but when the state issued one in March it required people to stay indoors except for essential services and exercise.
In the Bay Area, all counties are in the purple tier except Marin, which is still in the red tier.
In the sobering update, Newsom provided a rundown on the latest metrics used to gauge the severity of the pandemic. The seven-day average in new daily cases was 14,657 on Monday, compared to 9,881 at the height of the July summer surge.
The state is implementing a record number of tests — an average of more than 200,000 a day — and as testing increases, he said the positivity rate (the percentage of people who test positive for the virus of all of individuals who are tested) becomes a key metric and shows the increased cases aren't explained by increased testing.
The state's rate was 6.2% on Monday, and was 4.7% as recently as Nov. 16.
Hospitalizations are of particular concern and have increased 89% across the past 14 days.
"Current projects show hospitalizations could increase two to three times the current amount in one month," said Newsom, referring to the expected uptick after Thanksgiving.
As of Monday, 59% of California health care system beds were occupied, and by Dec. 24, that number is expected to rise to 78%. In the Bay Area, 58% of beds are in use, and by Dec. 24, projects show an increase to 78%.
To prepare for the expected flood of patients, Newsom said the state will begin to make 11 surge facilities throughout the state "fully operational." The facilities can provide an additional 1,862 beds.
On a more positive note, the governor said the state is doing "better than the overwhelming majority of other states." He shared a slide showing that the Golden State ranks 39th in seven-day average case rate per 100,000 in the country. California is recording 34.5 new daily cases per 100,000 compared to North Dakota, with the highest rate, with 112.3 cases per 100,000.
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