Dr. Ashish Jha said Monday the United States is “on the road to recovery” from COVID-19, but there remain a few “bumps ahead.”
One of the bigger ones is the virus variant first detected in the United Kingdom, B.1.1.7, which spreads more easily and quickly than other strains.
So far, 690 cases of the variant have been detected in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which has warned B.1.1.7 could become the dominant source of coronavirus infections in the country in March. Seven cases have been confirmed so far in Massachusetts, according to the CDC.
Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said Monday that the United States is seeing positive trends, including falling infection rates and hospitalizations. He also expects vaccines to be “plentiful” by late spring.
“Am optimistic about late spring and summer,” Jha wrote on Twitter. “But concerned about next couple of months.”
Infections are down about 50%
Hospitalizations are down about 33%
Vaccines will be plentiful by late spring
All good news, right?
Yes!
But
On the road to recovery, we still have a few bumps ahead
A big one is the B117 — the UK variant
My thread on why its so concerning https://t.co/InmwKXFWD3
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 8, 2021
The doctor pointed to data out of Ireland and Germany that illustrates how B.1.1.7 can “quickly overwhelm a nation.” Ireland, he noted, used a lockdown to get spiking infections under control in October. But as the U.K. variant began to circulate, the country saw “exponential growth,” seeing its number of cases increasingly multiply over three weeks. The country went into full lockdown by the end of December.
By its peak in early January, Ireland saw 132 new cases per 100,000 people, according to Jha — a rate the U.S. hasn’t ever seen.
“Our holiday ‘surge’ was small in comparison,” Jha wrote.
As it is, Jha estimated that “maybe” 2 percent of the COVID-19 infections in the U.S. are being caused by the U.K. variant.
“But we don’t know because we still aren’t doing enough genomic surveillance,” he wrote. “So most public health experts expect a spike from B117. But we can avoid a horrible spike that flattens our hospitals and kills tens of thousands.”
To prepare and hold off such a surge from the variant, the United States needs to “substantially ramp up” genomic surveillance to search for the strain.
As soon as infections start to creep up, action must be taken quickly to stem the spread, he said.
“Our vaccines will work against B.1.1.7,” Jha wrote. “And they will blunt the effects on high risk people if we can get them into arms fast enough. Today’s analysis shows that B117 will become widespread in the U.S. But it need not flatten us. We have the tools to beat it.”
B117 is much more contagious – so it can quickly overwhelm a nation
Great write-up about Andersen piece and broader issues by @carlzimmer in @nytimes today
If you want to understand what this variant can do to a nation, let’s look at some data
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
In Mid-December, Germany (red) looked worse than Ireland (blue)
But B117 was circulating in Ireland and starting to grow
Not so much in Germany
And what happened next in Ireland was really rough
What you see is a exponential growth
4/8 pic.twitter.com/tNeEMVmBbG
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
Cases peaked on 1/9 at 132 new cases / 100K
US has never seen numbers like that
Only the Dakotas had infection rates that high
In comparison, here's US during this time
Our holiday "surge" was small in comparison
6/8 pic.twitter.com/Pvf61msJXq
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
May be 2% of our infections are from B117
But we don’t know because we still aren’t doing enough genomic surveillance
So most public health experts expect a spike from B117
But we can avoid a horrible spike that flattens our hospitals and kills tens of thousands
How?
8/9
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
Our vaccines will work against B117
And they will blunt the effects on high risk people
If we can get them into arms fast enough
Today's analysis shows that B117 will become widespread in the US
But it need not flatten us
We have the tools to beat it
Fin
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
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