Marin County could move into the state’s red tier for coronavirus risk by mid-month, enabling more businesses to open indoors with limits if the trend continues, the county’s public health officer said Tuesday.
“We are among the larger counties that may be headed toward the red tier,” Dr. Matt Willis told Marin County supervisors. “It’s something that could happen as early as mid-February if our numbers continue to improve.”
Willis said that among medium- and large-sized counties across the state, Marin has the lowest incidence of the virus, but cautioned that “we don’t want to be falsely reassured by this.”
“We are being graded on a curve here,” he said.
California is one of the hardest hit states in the country, Willis said. He said Marin residents need to continue to wear masks, maintain physical distancing and avoid indoor gatherings.
“The vaccine is not moving nearly quickly enough into Marin to be the solution to surges in cases,” he said.
In fact, Willis said, a lack of vaccine coming from the state is making it difficult for the county to offer a first dose to a sizable number of additional Marin residents.
So far, the county has vaccinated more than 34,000 residents, about 11% of the population. Most of those vaccinated are health care and long-term care workers.
The county is now offering vaccinations to anyone 75 or older and has vaccinated about 8,000 of its 24,000 residents in this category.
But the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses for optimum effectiveness. As a result, a sizable portion of the county’s weekly allotment of the vaccine must be reserved for second doses.
“Weekly supplies need to continually increase to vaccinate new residents,” Willis said, “because of the need for a second dose.”
Willis said next week there will be only about 3,000 doses available for new first shots. That will include vaccinations performed by the county, MarinHealth, Kaiser Permanente and Sutter Health.
County employees are being reassigned to help vaccination efforts when greater supplies arrive.
“Our top priority is vaccinating our residents,” County Administrator Matthew Hymel said. “When the vaccine supply increases, we stand ready to ensure that the supply is quickly utilized.”
Willis said Marin’s largest and most recent surge, fueled by a succession of holidays — Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s Day — peaked around Jan. 10.
“We’ve seen a dramatic reduction in cases since then,” he said.
Marin’s drop in cases between Jan. 10 and Jan. 25 was one of the largest rates of change that the county has experienced in any point in the pandemic, Willis said.
Since Jan. 25, the number of coronavirus cases has plateaued at around 20 cases per 100,000 residents per day. Now the county has about 15 cases per 100,000 residents per day.
For the county to move into the state’s red tier, it would need to bring its case rate down to seven cases per 100,000 residents per day.
In addition to allowing expanded indoor business activity, a move into the red tier would give Marin authorization from the state to reopen its middle and high schools.
Willis said 87% of Marin’s schools are open to some form of classroom-based instruction. He said there have been only nine cases of suspected coronavirus transmission within Marin schools, none of which were between a student and an adult.
In fact, Willis said, the data indicates that having children in school lowers transmission.
“Transmission within school seems to be lower than the community as a whole on a per-day basis,” he said.
Willis also provided rationale for the county’s decision to offer the vaccine next to people 75 and older. He said one in seven Marin residents above age 75 who got infected have died. By comparison, he said, the mortality rate for people under the age of 65 is less than 1%.
“Preventing mortality is the single most important goal,” he said.
There was no discussion Tuesday on prioritizing people who have medical conditions that put them at high risk of death should they contract the virus. Last week, Supervisor Stephanie Moulton-Peters asked Willis to consider doing so. Willis reaffirmed Tuesday that the plan is to vaccinate Marin food and agricultural workers next.
“Equity has been an important organizer of our response across the board,” Willis said. “The occupations that are being favored for earlier access to the vaccine are selected based on the fact that they have been disproportionately impacted.”
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February 03, 2021 at 08:41AM
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