The official Covid-19 figures in India grossly understate the true scale of the pandemic in the country. Last week, India recorded the largest daily death toll for any country during the pandemic — a figure that is most likely still an undercount.
Even getting a clear picture of the total number of infections in India is hard because of poor record-keeping and a lack of widespread testing. Estimating the true number of deaths requires a second layer of extrapolation, depending on the share of those infected who end up dying.
In consultation with more than a dozen experts, The New York Times has analyzed case and death counts over time in India, along with the results of large-scale antibody tests, to arrive at several possible estimates for the true scale of devastation in the country.
Even in the least dire of these, estimated infections and deaths far exceed official figures. More pessimistic ones show a toll on the order of millions of deaths — the most catastrophic loss anywhere in the world.
India’s official coronavirus statistics report about 27 million cases and over 300,000 deaths as of Tuesday. The country’s response to the pandemic has been further complicated this week by a cyclone that is battering India’s eastern coast, with winds of more than 95 miles per hour.
Even in countries with robust surveillance during the pandemic, the number of infections is probably much higher than the number of confirmed cases, because many people have contracted the virus but have not been tested for it. On Friday, a report by the World Health Organization estimated that the global death toll of Covid-19 may be two or three times higher than reported.
The undercount of cases and deaths in India is most likely even more pronounced, for technical, cultural and logistical reasons. Because hospitals are overwhelmed, many Covid deaths occur at home, especially in rural areas, and are omitted from the official count, said Kayoko Shioda, an epidemiologist at Emory University. Laboratories that could confirm the cause of death are equally swamped, she said.
Additionally, other researchers have found, there are few Covid tests available. Families are often unwilling to say that their loved ones have died of Covid. And the system for keeping vital records in India is shaky at best. Even before Covid-19, about four out of five deaths in India were not medically investigated.
Dominic Cummings‚ once the most powerful adviser to Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain, and now arguably his most dangerous enemy — is testifying before two Parliamentary committees on Wednesday about the country’s handling of the pandemic.
He is expected to unload a trove of inside details about how Mr. Johnson bungled Britain’s initial response, necessitating what the former adviser says were months of needless and ruinous lockdowns. His account, some of which he previewed in a dense, didactic Twitter thread over recent days, is likely to embarrass a leader who bounced back from that wobbly performance, largely on the strength of Britain’s swift rollout of vaccines.
“Dominic Cummings has long been known as a man who brings a bazooka to a knife fight,” said Matthew Goodwin, a professor of politics at the University of Kent. “I suspect he shall not walk quietly into the night.”
Mr. Cummings and Mr. Johnson have traveled a long way since last May, when the prime minister backed him up in a furor over his violation of Britain’s lockdown rules. Emboldened by the boss’s support, Mr. Cumming was unrepentant about his decision to drive 260 miles to his parents’ home, waving away questions at the news conference about why he had been so cavalier about the rules.
But Mr. Johnson later fell out with Mr. Cummings, firing him in November.
With its promise of juicy details about an alliance gone bad, the testimony is likely to be political theater of a rare vintage.
As Puerto Rico recovers from a spring coronavirus surge and cases decline, the U.S. territory is steadily relaxing pandemic restrictions, including lifting a nightly curfew that was in effect since March 2020.
The island is taking a big step toward returning to normal not long after experiencing its worst outbreak. Toward the end of April, Puerto Rico was reporting over 1,000 cases a day, up from about 200 new daily cases in mid-March.
Since then, its case numbers have drastically decreased, as they have around the United States with the steady advance of vaccinations, which Dr. Carlos Mellado López, the head of Puerto Rico’s Department of Health, credited for the turnaround. Puerto Rico is averaging 146 new coronavirus cases daily over the past seven days, an almost 60 percent decrease over the past two weeks, according to a New York Times database. Just over 30 percent of the island’s population has been fully vaccinated and 45 percent has been given at least one vaccination, numbers that lag behind the U.S. averages of 39 and 49 percent, respectively.
The easing of restrictions took effect over the past two days, starting with the end of the 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew on Monday. Another change affects fully vaccinated travelers on domestic flights, who no longer need to present a negative coronavirus test before entry and instead must present proof of vaccination, such as a vaccine card.
Puerto Rico will offer the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to any visitors who arrive at the Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport in San Juan, starting Friday, according to The Associated Press. Other changes include increased capacities for businesses from 30 percent to 50 percent, a reopening of the island’s stadiums at 30 percent capacity and a lifting of mask requirements for fully vaccinated people at parks and beaches.
On the mainland, state governments have been rapidly loosening restrictions. Louisiana’s governor said on Tuesday that the state would remove capacity restrictions for businesses and a mandate requiring students to wear masks at schools, starting next school year. New Jersey’s governor said on Monday that fully vaccinated people would no longer have to wear masks indoors. In Hawaii, Gov. David Ige said on Tuesday that all people, vaccinated and unvaccinated, would no longer have to wear masks outdoors.
In Puerto Rico, experts say many factors led to the island’s spring surge, including the arrival of coronavirus variants, a return to in-person work and dining, tourists flocking to the island for spring break season and gatherings to celebrate Holy Week. As cases soared, worries simmered over hospital bed capacity and the dearth of medical professionals needed to address a swell in sickness.
As Memorial Day weekend approaches, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention offered a hopeful message mixed with caution on Tuesday for Americans planning to celebrate the traditional beginning of summer with friends and family.
“If you are vaccinated, you are protected, and you can enjoy your Memorial Day,” the C.D.C. director, Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, said during a White House news conference. “If you are not vaccinated, our guidance has not changed for you, you remain at risk of infection. You still need to mask and take other precautions.”
The holiday weekend comes amid a national decline in coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths. All across the country, mask mandates are easing, restrictions are lifting and many states have gone back to business as usual.
After countless traditional Memorial Day events and other first rites of summer were canceled last year because of the pandemic, vaccinated Americans may be looking forward to crowded beaches and packed backyard barbecues, getting back to what Dr. Walensky described as “something closer to normal.”
As of Tuesday, 50 percent of those 18 or older in the U.S. were reported as fully vaccinated, according to data from the C.D.C. More than 61 percent of adults have received at least one shot, though the pace has been slowing. President Biden set a goal on May 4 of at least partly vaccinating 70 percent of adults by July 4 as the administration has shifted its strategy in order to reach those who may still not have gotten shots.
But Dr. Walensky also urged those who remain unvaccinated to add a new activity to their Memorial Day rituals. “I want to encourage you to take this holiday weekend to give yourself and your family the gift of protection by getting vaccinated,” she said. “We are on a good downward path, but we are not quite out of the woods yet.”
Dr. Walensky’s remarks come after the C.D.C. said this month that it was no longer necessary for fully vaccinated people to mask or maintain social distance in many settings. The change was a major step for the federal government toward coaxing Americans closer to a post-pandemic world, even as the spread of the virus persists the globe.
And as U.S. states and retailers gradually began adopting the guidance, being able to distinguish who was vaccinated or who was not essentially turned into an honor system that relies on unvaccinated people keeping their masks on in public.
Vaccination requirements have become a cultural flash point as the shots become more accessible.
Republican governors in Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Montana and Texas have denounced vaccine passports, or digital proof of vaccination, and have issued executive orders restricting their use. On Tuesday, Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia signed an executive order that prohibits state agencies from using a vaccine passport program or requiring proof that people have been vaccinated against Covid-19.
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Death Toll in India Far Exceeds Official Figures, a Times Analysis Shows - The New York Times
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